Currently, it's 6:37 pm Fri Nov 21 2008 in beautiful Miami-Dade County, Florida
Bertha ESE Slot swell watch (deerfield to boynton) And SE swell watch (fort pierce north) for next weekend (july 12-13, 08)
anyone remember isabel in 03 and how it sent some insane surf for several hours to S. palm beach. Now i'm not predicting anything that would match that for sure but Bertha does have my attention.
From looking at Isabel's path and the date s. fl got the slot swell (between the islands in the bahams in an area known as the providence channel) it appers to me the swell window started somewhere between 23.5 N / 67 W - 24.5 N/ 69W give or take a half a degree either way. IF we can get bertha in that window moving Wnw to NW we should be able to get several hours of surf close by. (in s. palm beach). Given the waves have sucked for over a month, this is something i will definitely watch closer, and you probably will start hearing her name in the forecasts by sunday nite. (my guess is NC could be at risk of storm strike but this is long way off. ) The estimated time of the potential swell for s. fl would be next saturday give or take a day.
also should the storm ride NW and miss the slot swell window to the S or N areas from fortpierce/melbourne and north will probably see something decent (for those who have the $ for a longer drive). estimated time would be sunday and monday
Don't discount the possibilities of a N/NE wind fetch as the storm rides a little north of us. Usual pattern - first swell possiblity, E/SE swell with forerunners showing up in Central FL around Thur., then full on E/SE swell with possible slot and then if/when the storm pulls further north, kicks back a NE/N swell. I've seen this pattern many times, I agree with you on the dates too, cpick. The usual concern applies - will the winds hold up in a favorable pattern as the swell approaches and kicks into gear on will the High/Low interaction give us breezier easterly conditions than forecasted as of now?
good point on the Ne/N swell. I think it would be having to move pretty slow in our window or be closer to us (to send us some N juice) Also the storm right now is pretty small in size, so i have more doubts about it's swell potential . i think North central fl has the best % shot of getting something as of now (outside of NC)
I have doubts for the places blocked by the bahamas but central florida and north should get something in the waist+ high range.
yes gallydif as the models seem to shift more to the right (in the short to medium term) the chance for the "slot swell' appears very minimal (only chance if a dramatic shift left in guidance) however there does appear to be some GOOD news for those who don't wish to travel to melbourne to get waves.
The first waves should be a SE swell hitting north of fortpierce possibly as early as thursday and then as the storm is forecast to be several hundred miles east and north of area we should see a east swell develop and probably turn ENE and work it's way down to the north palm beach area by saturday. This could last a few days as the storm is currently forecast to be left spinning somewhere in the general vicinity of bermuda from friday thru sunday.
The juice from the SE hitting the fortpierce area northward should be overhead easily (by friday) as max winds are now over 115 MPH!